Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5563dc3b3f6e606e031366772b8963c6538d42ed5d9628de11204d9fd4df21d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 1c | 17,280$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.79 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 35c | 972.89$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.62 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 9c | 846.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 63c | 599.98$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.21 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 372.16$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 58c | 362.82$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.69 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 68c | 222.51$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 204.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 57c | 165.15$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 138.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 38c | 132.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 73c | 122.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.77 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 39c | 119.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 62c | 107.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 76c | 99.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 83.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 47c | 80.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 62c | 80.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 54c | 70.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 68c | 69.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 66.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 65.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 42c | 64.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 56c | 61.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 60.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 33c | 60.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 35c | 57.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 55c | 50.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 49.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 38c | 46.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 61c | 46.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…ba61backed No | 63c | 45.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 47c | 45.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 34c | 42.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 40.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 62c | 39.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 39c | 38.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked Yes | 74c | 37.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed Yes | 38c | 35.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e5…c4bbbacked Yes | 35c | 32.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 37c | 31.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 63c | 28.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 65c | 20.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1c…e255backed Yes | 75c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 60c | 18.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1843…affabacked No | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked Yes | 66c | 17.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 65c | 17.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 65c | 17.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.