Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-11-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa58ac75b0bce701edf93a3b393554ab0383a4a811e0c7208f64de94ed98388b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 48c | 1,997$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.06 | 293 | 57.3%168 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf1…1d5dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,839$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed No | 31c | 1,400$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 62c | 1,269$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.07 | 7,966 | 45.3%3,608 W · 4,358 L | +9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 42c | 905.08$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.89 | 5,655 | 42%2,376 W · 3,279 L | +75.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked No | 46c | 761.96$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.96 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 45c | 488.59$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.22 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 51c | 404.57$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.33 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 52c | 277.78$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.28 | 1,163 | 60.5%704 W · 459 L | +67.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 23c | 240.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 294 | 25.9%76 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 40c | 166.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x96cc…4cf9backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 25c | 101.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b0d2backed No | 58c | 85.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 22c | 84.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 75c | 84.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…69d3backed No | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 51c | 76.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 23c | 76.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 230 | 21.7%50 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 22c | 72.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 473 | 25.4%120 W · 353 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…6240backed Yes | 25c | 61.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…c110backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…7643backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…3e38backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 68c | 21.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x735c…79c9backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b7…eb4bbacked Yes | 65c | 15.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-11-03?this page
- Will FC Midtjylland vs. Aarhus GF end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-11-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.