La Liga · resolved market
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-01-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa58b7c4b605da352f96b097617e804fbc7655a3f93ab494746a0eb5f6c8b429b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 46c | 3,185$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.12 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 54c | 2,321$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.37 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 73c | 1,766$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.55 | 228 | 59.6%136 W · 92 L | +18.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 12c | 1,387$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.68 | 1,418 | 45.6%646 W · 772 L | -10.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 26c | 1,291$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.84 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 28c | 1,202$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.27 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed No | 55c | 944.99$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.74 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 44c | 665.84$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.47 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed No | 21c | 461.54$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 46c | 350$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 54c | 334.77$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.77 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 47c | 315.46$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.19 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 54c | 303.15$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.59 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9b…fababacked Yes | 75c | 267.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 53c | 255.67$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.64 | 2,339 | 48.5%1,135 W · 1,204 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 43c | 240$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 46c | 226.86$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 27c | 202$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.61 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…871cbacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked No | 73c | 200$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.09 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +73%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 51c | 193$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.18 | 494 | 47%232 W · 262 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca66…2305backed Yes | 45c | 118.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Yes | 44c | 116$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…fb2ebacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Yes | 44c | 98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795f…1871backed Yes | 43c | 95.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 47c | 85.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 283 | 42.8%121 W · 162 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 47c | 76.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe72e…b33dbacked Yes | 79c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 46c | 65.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 200 | 47.5%95 W · 105 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 176 | 43.8%77 W · 99 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 26c | 56.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Yes | 33c | 51.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 195 | 44.1%86 W · 109 L | +13.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 30c | 43.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 585 | 48%281 W · 304 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 56c | 42.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81dc…45a1backed No | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…30f4backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…e42dbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65a6…3e59backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 45c | 33.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 307 | 49.2%151 W · 156 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed No | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked No | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked No | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked No | 56c | 25.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe139…84b4backed No | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…b5a9backed Yes | 47c | 24.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked No | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked No | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed No | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…2506backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945d…7348backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…0badbacked Yes | 76c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-01-26?this page
- Will AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa end in a draw?No won
- Will Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa win on 2026-01-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.