Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Lucia Bronzetti vs Sloane Stephens
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa59455b3fafbda8298e19ede840785cb8544484cd88dfce6e25010a93d91b6f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stephensof Bronzetti, Stephens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bronzetti | 0c | 3,952$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Stephens | 60c | 2,700$1,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.44 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bronzetti | 24c | 1,648$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.54 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Bronzetti | 40c | 1,296$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.65 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Stephens | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bronzetti | 37c | 811$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.24 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Bronzetti | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Bronzetti | 18c | 294.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Bronzetti | 23c | 251.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Bronzetti | 26c | 192.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bronzetti | 40c | 141$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Bronzetti | 44c | 113$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Bronzetti | 37c | 113$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -8.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Bronzetti | 44c | 109.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Stephens | 59c | 101.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bronzetti | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Stephens | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…c468backed Stephens | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Bronzetti | 28c | 71.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0d03backed Bronzetti | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 166 | 57.8%96 W · 70 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Stephens | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Bronzetti | 44c | 38.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 219 | 49.3%108 W · 111 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Stephens | 56c | 36.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Bronzetti | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Bronzetti | 34c | 29.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Stephens | 78c | 27.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Stephens | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.