Tennis · resolved market
Hellenic Championship, Qualification: Filip Misolic vs Alex Molcan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5b48bc74bcd0666bc3697783a4cc195ce29f15b1ea23bf56668bd605c94576d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Molcanof Misolic, Molcan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Molcan | 66c | 9,537$6,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,233.46 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Misolic | 34c | 5,256$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,790.15 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Misolic | 33c | 4,932$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,631.95 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Molcan | 72c | 2,849$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.14 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Misolic | 29c | 2,810$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.24 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Molcan | 65c | 1,698$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.52 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Misolic | 17c | 1,175$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Molcan | 58c | 866.78$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ed…617ebacked Misolic | 25c | 809.96$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.49 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4b…002bbacked Molcan | 54c | 743.27$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Misolic | 39c | 708$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.19 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Molcan | 65c | 611.65$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.64 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…0004backed Misolic | 58c | 600$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked Molcan | 66c | 569.17$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.31 | 333 | 52.6%175 W · 158 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48d…5182backed Misolic | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 245 | 58.8%144 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Misolic | 20c | 350$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 692 | 49.6%343 W · 349 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Misolic | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…ae45backed Molcan | 68c | 258.71$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.79 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Molcan | 66c | 206.25$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Molcan | 58c | 172.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Molcan | 67c | 98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Misolic | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f9…deaebacked Molcan | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8019…df3abacked Molcan | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b1…c973backed Misolic | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…54d9backed Molcan | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Molcan | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Molcan | 68c | 48.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 52 | 75%39 W · 13 L | +7.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Misolic | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…2518backed Misolic | 39c | 38.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2389…504dbacked Misolic | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Molcan | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…f352backed Molcan | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228c…d768backed Molcan | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Molcan | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.