Tennis · resolved market
ITF Darmstadt: Francesca Curmi vs Xinxin Yao
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5d3e9e4a54b62c72bb03439e92e23685060ab6d70efe82e4da2d64cf67f6822
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Francesca Curmiof Francesca Curmi, Xinxin Yao
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Xinxin Yao | 12c | 394.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Xinxin Yao | 14c | 202$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Xinxin Yao | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 156 | 57.1%89 W · 67 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Xinxin Yao | 11c | 99.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Xinxin Yao | 14c | 75.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Francesca Curmi | 76c | 69.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Francesca Curmi | 76c | 68.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 408 | 61.3%250 W · 158 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Francesca Curmi | 76c | 66.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Xinxin Yao | 24c | 62.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Xinxin Yao | 33c | 59.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Xinxin Yao | 24c | 56.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Xinxin Yao | 24c | 50.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f40…16c7backed Francesca Curmi | 68c | 39.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Francesca Curmi | 75c | 37.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7648…9752backed Francesca Curmi | 76c | 32.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…f311backed Francesca Curmi | 75c | 26.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 255 | 51%130 W · 125 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe01…b45dbacked Francesca Curmi | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 223 | 77.6%173 W · 50 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 77cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Francesca Curmi | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…a082backed Francesca Curmi | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 425 | 63.3%269 W · 156 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.