Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6062f3149d57ebeea17d6ab22d4848f521d1ece30004c0fd3a855d5df076127
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,589 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 275.49$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 60c | 273.45$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.12 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 29c | 215$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 13c | 211$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 51c | 197.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 30c | 185.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 33c | 158$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 68c | 147.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 47c | 129.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 29c | 124.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 117$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 53c | 94.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 61.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2a…e917backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…61c2backed No | 66c | 58.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 56.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 33c | 51.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 27c | 51.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef8…7a57backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 49.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 49.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 44c | 48.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 47c | 46.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 40c | 36.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 26.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 67c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.