Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6152b14f2b8286d7fc98a10464a8bd5443146f2148ea3e1a6fe8538d235fce4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 302.83$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 267.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 206.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 158.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 146.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 20c | 146.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 123.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…5e63backed Yes | 28c | 117.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 112.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 108.39$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 72c | 96.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 88.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa1…4674backed Yes | 30c | 83.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 76.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 67c | 74.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 75c | 72.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 61.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 32c | 61.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 33c | 60.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 74c | 54.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 32c | 51.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 22c | 45.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 71c | 45.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 43.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 28c | 39.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 32c | 39.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 34.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 72c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 30.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 28.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 69c | 24.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 22.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 78c | 18.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 73c | 16.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.