South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa62182c3e19ebfdfa87cbb0760610fa353106c68cc1c21cb9466d21b8b3fd3d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carabobo FCof CA River Plate, Carabobo FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Carabobo FC | 45c | 1,063$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.52 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed CA River Plate | 55c | 1,010$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed Carabobo FC | 49c | 969.4$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.39 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Carabobo FC | 57c | 610.56$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.36 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed CA River Plate | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed CA River Plate | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…8bcebacked CA River Plate | 54c | 494.98$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…65bdbacked CA River Plate | 52c | 373.54$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.24 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed CA River Plate | 49c | 261.76$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.26 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed CA River Plate | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked CA River Plate | 41c | 240$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked CA River Plate | 45c | 218$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 138 | 28.3%39 W · 99 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Carabobo FC | 48c | 202.81$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.95 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked CA River Plate | 50c | 197.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed CA River Plate | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked CA River Plate | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked CA River Plate | 26c | 98.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Carabobo FC | 46c | 84.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked CA River Plate | 52c | 80.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Carabobo FC | 59c | 59.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Carabobo FC | 50c | 48.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed CA River Plate | 39c | 46.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…8bbcbacked CA River Plate | 56c | 43.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Carabobo FC | 43c | 43.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Carabobo FC | 70c | 40.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Carabobo FC | 44c | 40.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed CA River Plate | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked CA River Plate | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed CA River Plate | 51c | 26.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd753…9570backed CA River Plate | 49c | 23.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Carabobo FC | 46c | 23.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)this page
- CA River Plate vs. Carabobo FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Carabobo FC: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.