Tennis · resolved market
ATP Washington D.C – Nakashima vs. Norrie
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa62728afcd1495d02523afb3642a8e7b9c26dbba0bcc86795ba049aaecfb9160
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Nakashima, Norrie
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Norrie | 45c | 7,000$3,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,150 | 220 | 37.7%83 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Nakashima | 57c | 5,236$2,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,252.48 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Norrie | 46c | 4,321$2,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,007.44 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Norrie | 44c | 4,318$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Nakashima | 53c | 4,202$2,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,955.26 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…16aebacked Nakashima | 55c | 3,811$2,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.95 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Nakashima | 55c | 3,679$2,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.59 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked Nakashima | 71c | 2,037$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.05 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Norrie | 36c | 1,790$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.4 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nakashima | 53c | 1,555$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.91 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Norrie | 13c | 1,200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.09 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed Norrie | 45c | 1,103$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Norrie | 46c | 800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Norrie | 3c | 498.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Nakashima | 56c | 498.21$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.21 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed Nakashima | 70c | 321.8$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Nakashima | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.4 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Nakashima | 69c | 300$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nakashima | 69c | 299$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.73 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Norrie | 25c | 285.05$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Norrie | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Norrie | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Norrie | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Nakashima | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Nakashima | 54c | 200$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Nakashima | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Nakashima | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Nakashima | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Norrie | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Norrie | 40c | 64.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 153 | 63.4%97 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Norrie | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Norrie | 28c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Norrie | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Nakashima | 55c | 42.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…8121backed Nakashima | 55c | 40.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Norrie | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed Nakashima | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63fa…d239backed Norrie | 46c | 30.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Norrie | 36c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc9…9b28backed Norrie | 45c | 24.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d64…eb24backed Nakashima | 56c | 24.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…52aebacked Norrie | 47c | 23.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Norrie | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…b072backed Nakashima | 56c | 18.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.