Champions League · resolved market
Will LAFC vs. Flamengo end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa632c8becfb32fe009e43786481c13af1896e361d3b6bcf8c88d7501c52c0320
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fcb…0426backed Yes | 26c | 35,571$9,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,275.85 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 74c | 20,000$14,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,800 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 74c | 5,000$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 73c | 3,808$2,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,781.93 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 28c | 2,750$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.13 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 3c | 1,496$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 61c | 1,461$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.91 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 49c | 946.97$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.02 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 74c | 835.97$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.62 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 77c | 521.95$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.95 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 48c | 457.41$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.07 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 69c | 411$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.84 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 68c | 361$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.88 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yes | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 29c | 250$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 67c | 248.83$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.9 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…a286backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 74c | 160$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…795bbacked Yes | 26c | 118.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…c74dbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…f920backed Yes | 26c | 80.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 74c | 80.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ac…cf35backed Yes | 77c | 51.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…f26ebacked Yes | 26c | 42.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Yes | 26c | 41.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07e…9851backed Yes | 64c | 23.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfac…490fbacked Yes | 60c | 21.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LAFC vs. Flamengo end in a draw?this page
- Will Flamengo beat LAFC?No won
- Will LAFC beat Flamengo?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.