Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa634732b3cfdeeb1685f84beb0bf36dfd3b4c2ab6dbe96159ab90aac7aca550a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 13c | 12,636$1,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,988.75 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 80c | 7,540$6,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,032 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 20c | 2,251$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800.77 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 20c | 2,160$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.96 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Yes | 27c | 748.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.34 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 73c | 657.91$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.27 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 21c | 479.29$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.64 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 20c | 463.89$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.12 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 25c | 457$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.75 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 75c | 457$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.75 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 26c | 346.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.15 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 76c | 218.42$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Yes | 16c | 170.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.27 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 74c | 160$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 73c | 140.74$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 24c | 140$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 24c | 113.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.63 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…79c2backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 28c | 81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ba…134ebacked Yes | 26c | 77.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…d3d6backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes | 21c | 69.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…5407backed No | 76c | 16.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-11-29?No won
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.