Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-11-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f6cfab56c089e6ea49e2b04e2faef3fc18304532c9499ffbb7a80c878933cec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb96c…6cc6backed No | 69c | 1,672$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,331$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.7 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 33c | 851.36$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.95 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 10c | 851$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked No | 69c | 463.77$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.77 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed No | 67c | 428$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.24 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 18c | 389.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 5c | 303.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed No | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 33c | 251.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 33c | 247$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 231$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 33c | 224$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 31c | 194.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…74d6backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes | 33c | 131.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee44…0082backed Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…a444backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +1,314.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…da80backed Yes | 32c | 87.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 31c | 77.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 32c | 74.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…767cbacked Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 30c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18d9…d560backed Yes | 33c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…94ebbacked Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0898…3c6dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…f7b4backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…5407backed No | 68c | 18.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-11-29?this page
- Will Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.