Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b4790741da56106004854ca06237249918257e0c8afc1f27bd5d43856621e5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 49c | 52,500$25,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,600 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 51c | 41,329$20,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,909.27 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 61c | 7,664$4,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,697.17 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 28c | 4,002$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,863.22 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 43c | 3,400$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed1e…48c4backed Yes | 42c | 1,290$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…f51dbacked Yes | 45c | 1,250$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 52c | 1,203$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.72 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 75c | 812.62$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.84 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 44c | 634.14$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.59 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…74d6backed No | 32c | 625$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…5b1fbacked Yes | 43c | 581.4$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 30c | 449.23$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.01 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x825a…b9fdbacked Yes | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 55c | 410.22$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.6 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 33c | 373.66$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.01 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 60c | 305.08$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.74 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed No | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 57c | 294.93$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb93b…454bbacked Yes | 43c | 290.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 56c | 290$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.85 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Yes | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 58c | 207.45$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…2704backed Yes | 70c | 177.58$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Yes | 70c | 157.63$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed No | 57c | 150.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Yes | 80c | 136.51$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 56c | 133.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes | 43c | 131.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…bb37backed Yes | 43c | 117.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcf…483fbacked Yes | 43c | 109.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…c86fbacked Yes | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 43c | 91.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…3f7abacked Yes | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 42c | 78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…9801backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 57c | 67.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…36fabacked No | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 58c | 53.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 20c | 52.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…092bbacked Yes | 43c | 48.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…a0a5backed Yes | 60c | 46.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…fdd1backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…66c8backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…10c5backed Yes | 43c | 46.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 43c | 41.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Yes | 61c | 41.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 25c | 39.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 56c | 32.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84c…a36dbacked Yes | 45c | 30.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e5…c3d4backed Yes | 72c | 30.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…5407backed Yes | 43c | 30.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked No | 58c | 29.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ad…7024backed Yes | 43c | 29.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773b…a9a8backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…88dfbacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 79c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-29?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-11-29?No won
- Will Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.