Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa63bff1df8a4d388933f6ad3f3f6a0e693aa915f400dfb84af0367ce5fd37d26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 3c | 1,700$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 3c | 1,544$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 3c | 1,350$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 12c | 850.07$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 3c | 820.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 3c | 800$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 3c | 785.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 3c | 492.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 2c | 470$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 4c | 425.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 15c | 389.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 4c | 355.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90b3…6ec0backed No | 10c | 348.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 7c | 343.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 4c | 287.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed No | 6c | 222$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 18c | 208.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 11c | 206.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 79c | 200.56$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed No | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 6c | 199.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed No | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed No | 7c | 150.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed No | 12c | 145.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 10c | 136.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed No | 10c | 134.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 11c | 113.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…b36fbacked No | 12c | 104.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 100.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 18c | 71.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 16c | 69.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb1…bd66backed Yes | 80c | 25.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.