Bundesliga · resolved market
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa651a290d2d7b6de1324ae7375cb315f378faaa69aa6dfa2c08dbf3560a3a37e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 25c | 311$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.16 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 71c | 205.59$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Over | 72c | 175$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Under | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 75c | 49.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 25c | 45.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Under | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Under | 28c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 62c | 40.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Over | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 30 | 93.3%28 W · 2 L | +7.8wins | +0.26per pick | 67cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…88d8backed Over | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed7e…c090backed Over | 72c | 27.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed Over | 64c | 17.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5this page
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.