Bundesliga · resolved market
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ecf240718f27f41884c907f94c79398367c6760408e2c197965d8bec1d5ce37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 1,353$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.62 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb3…bf2ebacked Over | 26c | 882.15$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +173%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fce…f2e3backed Under | 74c | 881.46$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 26c | 796.3$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.3 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 655.82$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.64 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 28c | 611.97$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.93 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 28c | 401.6$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.09 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 49c | 340.85$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.98 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 46c | 239.46$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.46 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 74c | 199.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 139.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 75c | 118$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…6a80backed Under | 78c | 114.12$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 56c | 94.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 72c | 84.12$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 43c | 71.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Over | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 44c | 57.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed Under | 74c | 49.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…76bcbacked Over | 25c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 73c | 40.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6257…99f6backed Under | 73c | 35.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 50c | 32.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…e592backed Over | 64c | 31.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Under | 74c | 19.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Under | 74c | 17.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…5857backed Over | 63c | 16.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf1…6adcbacked Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5this page
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.