Bundesliga · resolved market
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8db07d296a9b6266fb2b3e345f9205849ff73dc0c313e3d74022de8db099791
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 52c | 1,375$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.07 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 48c | 937.5$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.5 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…56e7backed Under | 51c | 503.56$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 49c | 399.99$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 53c | 253$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.09 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 48c | 195.83$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 164.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 59c | 146.03$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 80c | 125.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…6a80backed Under | 57c | 125$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 42c | 118.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 48c | 110.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 19c | 105.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed Over | 37c | 81.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 54c | 74.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 62c | 50.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Under | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 42c | 47.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 44.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 45c | 38.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Over | 44c | 38.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…e77bbacked Over | 50c | 30.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…0a4abacked Under | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…2663backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5this page
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.