Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6568c6f25d292f5f3dd47d2f384be4cda431fd96080e78ecdd56ddfb6a4c966
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 31c | 489.75$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.12 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 26c | 323.03$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.69 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 312.38$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.54 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 27c | 266.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.39 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 263.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 235$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 209.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 181.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 161.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.58 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…c389backed No | 77c | 157$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.89 | 38 | 86.8%33 W · 5 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 152.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…313cbacked Yes | 16c | 117.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.93 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 35c | 94.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 49c | 85.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 29c | 85.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 78.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 72c | 78.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 15c | 76.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 22c | 76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 68c | 73.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 69.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 68.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 64.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 66c | 60.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 59.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1704…b0e1backed Yes | 70c | 54.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 49.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 45.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 45.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 43.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 70c | 42.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 31c | 38.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 36.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 33.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 65c | 33.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 32.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 30.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 76c | 26.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 25.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 25.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 20.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 69c | 19.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 19.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 77c | 18.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 16.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 78c | 16.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.