Tennis · resolved market
Bastad: Emiliana Arango vs Paula Badosa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa658ac0980ab1a8d28636e40c558c042deee05b4bae0d87f22633efd25a007a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paula Badosaof Emiliana Arango, Paula Badosa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Emiliana Arango | 7c | 13,121$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.08 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Emiliana Arango | 26c | 2,555$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.35 | 1,363 | 38.3%522 W · 841 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…939ebacked Emiliana Arango | 20c | 1,542$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.12 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Emiliana Arango | 11c | 1,426$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.04 | 1,132 | 50.3%569 W · 563 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Paula Badosa | 74c | 1,355$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.01 | 940 | 68.1%640 W · 300 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Emiliana Arango | 20c | 1,212$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.41 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Emiliana Arango | 17c | 1,151$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 606 | 51.8%314 W · 292 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Emiliana Arango | 14c | 1,070$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Emiliana Arango | 23c | 1,000$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.67 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…a20dbacked Emiliana Arango | 25c | 767.8$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 110 | 28.2%31 W · 79 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Paula Badosa | 74c | 509.54$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.94 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Emiliana Arango | 24c | 508.35$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Emiliana Arango | 24c | 486.84$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.84 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked Paula Badosa | 79c | 414.43$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 314 | 43.6%137 W · 177 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe857…7b3bbacked Emiliana Arango | 24c | 411.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 838 | 23.2%194 W · 644 L | -58.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Emiliana Arango | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Paula Badosa | 77c | 389.14$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Emiliana Arango | 12c | 358.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Paula Badosa | 76c | 348.36$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Emiliana Arango | 14c | 339.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 788 | 47.5%374 W · 414 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Paula Badosa | 76c | 320$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…5112backed Paula Badosa | 74c | 294.45$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Emiliana Arango | 15c | 280.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a1…2dbebacked Emiliana Arango | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Emiliana Arango | 25c | 225.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 423 | 59.1%250 W · 173 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Emiliana Arango | 23c | 220.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Emiliana Arango | 15c | 199.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 180 | 38.3%69 W · 111 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Emiliana Arango | 19c | 185.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x901b…59efbacked Emiliana Arango | 12c | 163.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 19.7%58 W · 237 L | -15.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Emiliana Arango | 25c | 161.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Paula Badosa | 76c | 152.3$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Emiliana Arango | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Emiliana Arango | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Paula Badosa | 75c | 146.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Emiliana Arango | 15c | 133.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Paula Badosa | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Emiliana Arango | 9c | 127.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Paula Badosa | 74c | 122.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28be…6dbebacked Emiliana Arango | 26c | 115.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 235 | 36.6%86 W · 149 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Emiliana Arango | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Emiliana Arango | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 327 | 26.9%88 W · 239 L | -43.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Paula Badosa | 74c | 104.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 689 | 51.1%352 W · 337 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Emiliana Arango | 25c | 102.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 508 | 45.9%233 W · 275 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…5b70backed Emiliana Arango | 11c | 93.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Emiliana Arango | 30c | 93.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 178 | 29.2%52 W · 126 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Emiliana Arango | 14c | 89.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 259 | 51.7%134 W · 125 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Paula Badosa | 76c | 82.03$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Emiliana Arango | 19c | 81.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Emiliana Arango | 25c | 81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Emiliana Arango | 17c | 79.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Emiliana Arango | 14c | 72.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66d…97acbacked Emiliana Arango | 26c | 67.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Emiliana Arango | 25c | 55.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x626d…e570backed Emiliana Arango | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 520 | 35.2%183 W · 337 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b2…1cbfbacked Emiliana Arango | 28c | 49.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Paula Badosa | 75c | 49.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 482 | 45.6%220 W · 262 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8b…13e6backed Paula Badosa | 79c | 32.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 114 | 62.3%71 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Paula Badosa | 74c | 32.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf75…099fbacked Paula Badosa | 77c | 18.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bastad: Emiliana Arango vs Paula Badosathis page
- Set Handicap: Badosa (-1.5) vs Arango (+1.5)Badosa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.