Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Elmer Moeller vs Marc Polmans
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa68f0fe5ab55d2c6aee1b0c20f7f568a07bee8de657c78ff033250f501b18c61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Moellerof Moeller, Polmans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Moeller | 57c | 10,360$5,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,454.06 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Polmans | 43c | 2,856$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Polmans | 43c | 2,696$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Polmans | 31c | 1,804$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.11 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Polmans | 43c | 1,770$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.1 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Polmans | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 326 | 37.4%122 W · 204 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Polmans | 36c | 617.81$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.45 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Moeller | 72c | 523.11$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.32 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Polmans | 37c | 507.42$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.21 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Polmans | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Moeller | 53c | 320.75$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.75 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Polmans | 44c | 310$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Polmans | 43c | 280$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Polmans | 19c | 276.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a5…398fbacked Moeller | 65c | 271.4$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.03 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Polmans | 25c | 255.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…9d6dbacked Polmans | 48c | 244.38$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.86 | 283 | 38.9%110 W · 173 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Polmans | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Polmans | 48c | 209.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Polmans | 43c | 178$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Moeller | 51c | 149.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Moeller | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Polmans | 43c | 143.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Polmans | 49c | 141.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda6…925abacked Polmans | 44c | 113.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Moeller | 55c | 109.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Polmans | 26c | 108.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Moeller | 55c | 100.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc598…b4acbacked Polmans | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Polmans | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 138 | 47.8%66 W · 72 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Moeller | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Moeller | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Polmans | 25c | 76.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x265a…6c3abacked Polmans | 16c | 66.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x114f…4602backed Moeller | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 77cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…43e2backed Moeller | 57c | 61.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 185 | 41.1%76 W · 109 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Moeller | 67c | 61.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Polmans | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 341 | 54.3%185 W · 156 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Polmans | 42c | 49.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…aca7backed Polmans | 50c | 49.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Polmans | 49c | 47.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…20bbbacked Polmans | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Moeller | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Moeller | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…e7d4backed Moeller | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Polmans | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…e191backed Polmans | 39c | 39.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed Moeller | 53c | 39.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Moeller | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…72a4backed Moeller | 80c | 26.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…576bbacked Moeller | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Moeller | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…81c3backed Moeller | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Moeller | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Elmer Moeller vs Marc Polmansthis page
- Moeller vs. Polmans: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Moeller vs. Polmans: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Moeller vs. Polmans: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Moeller vs. Polmans: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Moeller vs PolmansMoeller won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.