Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa690358869e613aa4a76b1213ab3b107e3a9f1f9eb8afe72646bcf46d7f9f424
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hikaru Shiraishiof Sena Okabe, Hikaru Shiraishi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Sena Okabe | 21c | 2,851$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.25 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0834…b743backed Sena Okabe | 22c | 2,296$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Sena Okabe | 17c | 1,979$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.71 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5f…c343backed Sena Okabe | 16c | 1,875$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.25 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sena Okabe | 18c | 1,839$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.5 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 79c | 1,126$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.23 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…558bbacked Sena Okabe | 16c | 900$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Sena Okabe | 19c | 683.44$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.34 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sena Okabe | 19c | 326.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Sena Okabe | 21c | 292.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Sena Okabe | 19c | 289.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Sena Okabe | 30c | 133$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed Sena Okabe | 8c | 131.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 222 | 8.6%19 W · 203 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Sena Okabe | 17c | 130.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Sena Okabe | 19c | 129.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Sena Okabe | 14c | 128.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Sena Okabe | 15c | 108.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…29a8backed Sena Okabe | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cb…fbe2backed Sena Okabe | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4869…b7abbacked Sena Okabe | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…379fbacked Sena Okabe | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 70c | 69.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.