NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Kings: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa69d3bee55410c2c53c94c635fd912f1d5ba7d5971e3c081a7bf51b43c2dcf32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Over | 1c | 5,925$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 324 | 51.2%166 W · 158 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 47c | 2,338$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.68 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 1,597$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.36 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee0…5233backed Over | 48c | 954.58$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 52c | 780.49$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.64 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 739.38$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.87 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 47c | 319$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Under | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 96.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 50c | 96.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 53c | 76.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 237 | 54%128 W · 109 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 49c | 66.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 74c | 58.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 54c | 39.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Over | 45c | 39.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Under | 52c | 36.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Under | 57c | 31.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 54c | 28.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44f2…1415backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Under | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Kings: O/U 5.5this page
- Flames vs. KingsFlames won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.