Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6a120e75be1ce42e0241584b982eb8d23b683531f13584e04604a1c158584dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 19c | 6,966$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.38 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Over | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 550.97$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.2 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe875…8492backed Under | 21c | 327.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 71c | 282$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.78 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…8423backed Over | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 61c | 164$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 41c | 117.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 61c | 92.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 44c | 78.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 39c | 77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 70.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…57afbacked Over | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…cd3bbacked Over | 77c | 23.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 76c | 19.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 74c | 14.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-1.5)1. FC Nürnberg won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)1. FC Nürnberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.