Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6caadd9350994a793391c8a2c93abafb9aa290a9e00df2e7988b7d1cab7cf07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf80…3259backed Over | 49c | 7,256$3,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,543.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 6,073$3,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,782.44 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 43c | 1,709$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.97 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 1,620$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.08 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 66c | 816.27$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.78 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 57c | 587.79$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.67 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 35c | 409.98$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.49 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +8.1wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe875…8492backed Under | 45c | 79.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 62c | 79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 38c | 79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 48c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 44c | 67.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 57c | 54.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 49c | 49.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 34c | 40.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fc…ed09backed Over | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 49c | 28.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 64c | 20.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Under | 65c | 15.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-1.5)1. FC Nürnberg won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)1. FC Nürnberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.