Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Mboko (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6b38a6580b9fba9798dd3e5878f8e7df6789c7157d618f288cc92157b0d2e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mbokoof Rybakina, Mboko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Rybakina | 51c | 11,002$5,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,607 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Mboko | 49c | 10,200$4,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,202 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rybakina | 1c | 3,751$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…14adbacked Rybakina | 49c | 2,060$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed Mboko | 48c | 1,123$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.99 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59e1…d3bbbacked Mboko | 51c | 1,052$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d1…0139backed Mboko | 51c | 1,008$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Rybakina | 52c | 1,002$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.84 | 465 | 53.8%250 W · 215 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mboko | 62c | 537.06$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.01 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Mboko | 53c | 480$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 243 | 40.3%98 W · 145 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Mboko | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Rybakina | 36c | 331.57$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked Mboko | 71c | 284.85$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 268 | 47%126 W · 142 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Mboko | 53c | 260$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Mboko | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…bfd7backed Rybakina | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Rybakina | 53c | 189.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Mboko | 34c | 174.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.92 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Mboko | 53c | 166.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Rybakina | 52c | 161.54$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Rybakina | 52c | 136.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Rybakina | 42c | 121.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 482 | 42.5%205 W · 277 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…47c8backed Mboko | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 202 | 61.4%124 W · 78 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Mboko | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked Rybakina | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 56.5%96 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…6e64backed Rybakina | 47c | 95.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mboko | 49c | 82.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0f…b453backed Mboko | 39c | 78.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Rybakina | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Rybakina | 51c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8202…f72cbacked Rybakina | 26c | 50.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29b…b518backed Mboko | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Rybakina | 43c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 142 | 57%81 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Mboko | 71c | 40.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Mboko | 53c | 37.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Mboko | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x583c…85cebacked Rybakina | 51c | 33.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1db…9073backed Rybakina | 52c | 31.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Mboko | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Rybakina | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed Rybakina | 52c | 21.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | +6.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Mboko (+1.5)this page
- Mboko vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Mboko vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Mboko vs. Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Qatar Total Open: Victoria Mboko vs Elena RybakinaMboko won
- Set 1 Winner: Mboko vs RybakinaMboko won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.