Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Mboko vs Rybakina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56b0586e887469a9735ac4bb6631747769552723f4adacaa396c3194db5a8ac1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mbokoof Mboko, Rybakina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mboko | 17c | 19,331$3,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,061.22 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mboko | 30c | 1,404$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.07 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Rybakina | 54c | 426.12$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.99 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae9…5b36backed Rybakina | 78c | 403.2$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.9 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Rybakina | 57c | 333$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.55 | 178 | 67.4%120 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Mboko | 9c | 277.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.23 | 290 | 63.8%185 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked Mboko | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 268 | 47%126 W · 142 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…189dbacked Mboko | 49c | 205.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Rybakina | 64c | 171.37$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.97 | 542 | 49.3%267 W · 275 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Mboko | 20c | 158.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.01 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3da…c91fbacked Rybakina | 69c | 129.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3d…a3e8backed Rybakina | 78c | 110$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Mboko | 15c | 102.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.38 | 2,087 | 54.1%1,130 W · 957 L | +64.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…b355backed Rybakina | 42c | 92.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…ea3bbacked Mboko | 41c | 72.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…8147backed Mboko | 27c | 72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Mboko | 28c | 59.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Rybakina | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 425 | 58.8%250 W · 175 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…96a4backed Rybakina | 61c | 40.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…742dbacked Rybakina | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mboko | 35c | 34.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f5…544fbacked Rybakina | 65c | 30.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 65cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…57c6backed Rybakina | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…e404backed Rybakina | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 61cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d42…6c98backed Rybakina | 68c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Rybakina | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…7553backed Mboko | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43e6…ac47backed Rybakina | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c2…8977backed Rybakina | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…5312backed Rybakina | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a9…c2f9backed Rybakina | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…104bbacked Rybakina | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Mboko vs Rybakinathis page
- Mboko vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Mboko vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Mboko vs. Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Qatar Total Open: Victoria Mboko vs Elena RybakinaMboko won
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Mboko (+1.5)Mboko won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.