Tennis · resolved market
Mboko vs. Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb251eb107df033586ca412a58e4a11ad81f4b38384be03cc19d40ae339267d53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under 2.5 | 3c | 370.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 61c | 310.72$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.54 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Under 2.5 | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 123 | 13.8%17 W · 106 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…561cbacked Over 2.5 | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over 2.5 | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over 2.5 | 39c | 110.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0483…483bbacked Over 2.5 | 39c | 101.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Over 2.5 | 51c | 62.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 425 | 58.8%250 W · 175 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Over 2.5 | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c5…e975backed Over 2.5 | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.8wins | +0.40per pick | 52cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 28.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mboko vs. Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Mboko vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Mboko vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Qatar Total Open: Victoria Mboko vs Elena RybakinaMboko won
- Set 1 Winner: Mboko vs RybakinaMboko won
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Mboko (+1.5)Mboko won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.