Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6cb9f15a17b32b0e5fb77796e1db6ec1a8fc4004cf6803f3327fbd51ef5f7ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 10c | 747$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 68c | 354.07$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.12 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 49c | 280.51$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.01 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 16c | 252$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked Yes | 47c | 199.47$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 49c | 183.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 161.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 33c | 158.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.68 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 52c | 145.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked No | 57c | 125.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 100.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 43c | 92.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 89.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b57…37aabacked No | 64c | 88.12$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 80.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 49c | 71.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 70c | 71.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 37c | 62.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 58.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 58.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 54.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 44c | 53.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 52.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d3…ce62backed Yes | 50c | 52.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ebbdbacked Yes | 73c | 51.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 50.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 38c | 49.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…010bbacked No | 62c | 44.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 54c | 39.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 45c | 38.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 42c | 35.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 37c | 32.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 31.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…708cbacked Yes | 37c | 28.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 71c | 27.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4048…5c72backed No | 66c | 26.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed No | 61c | 23.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 49c | 23.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…b489backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 72cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 61c | 16.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.