Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Vaduz win on 2026-07-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6dcc2cb51047c231a535bf85adc3d6ea404929dc18949501b46bb433f01051c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 21c | 5,132$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.74 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 75c | 5,013$3,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.9 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked No | 25c | 2,055$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.83 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 78c | 1,532$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.12 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 22c | 1,135$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.78 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked No | 26c | 988.16$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.92 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed No | 26c | 988.14$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.92 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 10c | 869.66$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 77c | 753.95$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.41 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 77c | 740.85$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.79 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 23c | 700.72$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.17 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 75c | 586.19$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.33 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 80c | 386.52$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 25c | 335.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6865…6033backed No | 22c | 314.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 22c | 304.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 22c | 297.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 79c | 241.42$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed Yes | 75c | 229$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed No | 10c | 218.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c68…6100backed No | 30c | 169.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Yes | 75c | 118.12$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 27c | 115.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed No | 22c | 99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed No | 18c | 90.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…31c4backed No | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 70c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…fc42backed Yes | 74c | 57.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 22c | 46.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 71c | 41.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3180backed Yes | 71c | 35.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 75c | 33.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 75c | 30.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed Yes | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Yes | 80c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Yes | 74c | 24.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Yes | 74c | 23.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Vaduz win on 2026-07-23?this page
- Will Atlétic Club d'Escaldes win on 2026-07-23?No won
- Will FC Vaduz vs. Atlétic Club d'Escaldes end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.