MLB · resolved market
Royals vs. Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6e0d7d94ce4e310751a739dda6423a08d640d5e8b203108ad0e327e761e0e1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royalsof Royals, Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Royals | 50c | 21,431$10,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,715.3 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Orioles | 50c | 15,202$7,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,601 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Orioles | 50c | 3,050$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Orioles | 50c | 2,498$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.17 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Orioles | 37c | 2,080$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.84 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Orioles | 50c | 1,664$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.44 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Orioles | 51c | 1,520$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.2 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Royals | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Royals | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles | 50c | 713.12$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.56 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Orioles | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Orioles | 28c | 567.91$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.45 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Royals | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Royals | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Royals | 78c | 385.85$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.85 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Orioles | 50c | 378$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Orioles | 50c | 350$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles | 38c | 347.29$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.77 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Orioles | 51c | 286.83$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.28 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Orioles | 49c | 215.69$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Orioles | 51c | 206$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.36 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Royals | 68c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Royals | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed Royals | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d9…61cdbacked Royals | 50c | 128$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0d…e976backed Orioles | 51c | 128$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…02ffbacked Royals | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Orioles | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db6…5dd1backed Orioles | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1509…0211backed Royals | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Royals | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Royals | 51c | 50.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Royals | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Royals | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Orioles | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Orioles | 51c | 38.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Orioles | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Royals | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Orioles | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Royals | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.