Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6f87d320ec689170e8365726a84ecff5bf6712927b36a2f16ae4e4ac0b05ac6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 1c | 1,708$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 34c | 705.81$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.34 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 72c | 228.88$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 31c | 161.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 135.7$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 134$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 23c | 117.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 81.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 80.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 69.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 63.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 52.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 71c | 51.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 65c | 51.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…c30abacked No | 79c | 49.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adb…3c3cbacked No | 79c | 35.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 26.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 69c | 25.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…1889backed No | 74c | 24.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 16.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…06fbbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.