MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa70deb900f73b9f8b1bbcf48c3b974d4241d555dc1920a6d2cc6143eadc45652
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked New York Mets | 45c | 2,407$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.4 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…6c51backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 1,200$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.95 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked New York Mets | 45c | 544.3$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.58 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 500.36$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed New York Mets | 45c | 359.46$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.48 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed New York Mets | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked New York Mets | 44c | 316$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.96 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked New York Mets | 45c | 303.84$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.11 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 232.5$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 210.45$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.75 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed New York Mets | 48c | 190.21$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.48 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed New York Mets | 44c | 178.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.05 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed New York Mets | 46c | 170.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 100.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 61.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed New York Mets | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked New York Mets | 45c | 53.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed New York Mets | 45c | 41.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…4c67backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 26.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed New York Mets | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed New York Mets | 46c | 22.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.