TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Phoenix be 65°F or below on December 5?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,445

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,488 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9437…6c5dbacked No75c683.88$513 inWon+$170.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x594e…1c11backed Yes40c388$155 inLost-$154.8666144.5%294 W · 367 L+57.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes78c120$93 inLost-$93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes16c117.99$19 inLost-$19.089954.5%54 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3680…f087backed Yes16c91$15 inLost-$14.6124432.8%80 W · 164 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a29…8b9ebacked Yes48c56.16$27 inLost-$278458.3%49 W · 35 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes37c36.31$13 inLost-$13.464235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No61c20$12 inWon+$7.819,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.