Us Politics · resolved market
Fact Check: Did Ilhan Omar marry her brother?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa70ed9fd6853607f5cdecc5a823dfd452d0414f1a81457b92cf268e3331dc543
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x756e…8f6bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,345$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5044…29a9backed Yes | 2c | 2,093$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e0…754ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,029$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0596…5acfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,974$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…cea7backed Yes | 10c | 1,558$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…2297backed Yes | 6c | 1,215$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,196$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…8a62backed Yes | 1c | 1,150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a2…112ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,125$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…008ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,042$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d7…2413backed Yes | 3c | 991.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…7e0cbacked Yes | 2c | 878.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 851.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4b…cebebacked Yes | 3c | 759.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 7c | 757.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b7…3211backed Yes | 7c | 746.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4f…f77ebacked Yes | 2c | 736.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…4da8backed Yes | 7c | 731.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…1412backed Yes | 4c | 729.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 728.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a62…8650backed Yes | 6c | 725.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a79…46eabacked Yes | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ceb…7cc0backed Yes | 10c | 612.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03bb…033ebacked Yes | 2c | 550$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 512.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 481.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 466.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…d99dbacked Yes | 5c | 432.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…0b03backed Yes | 7c | 417.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…0901backed Yes | 5c | 412.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Yes | 10c | 404.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1091…a259backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd153…f9a3backed Yes | 8c | 253.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 6c | 211$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…b758backed Yes | 10c | 202.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6431…ae73backed Yes | 6c | 190.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f6…7742backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.