Earnings · resolved market
Will Meta say "VR / Virtual Reality" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa713b2e9099a3c1e85ed6eaa0d421b44d89e6416d77f5bfdc12ada4c52dd0976
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 38c | 171.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 38c | 131.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 40c | 122.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +58%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 61c | 112$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…c2e6backed Yes | 68c | 60.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 62c | 42.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked Yes | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 62c | 24.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta say "VR / Virtual Reality" during earnings call?this page
- Will Meta say "Advertising" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Meta say "Algorithm" during earnings call?No won
- Will Meta say "Cloud" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Meta say "Dividend" during earnings call?No won
- Will Meta say "Hiring" during earnings call?No won
- Will Meta say "Hyperion" during earnings call?No won
- Will Meta say "Llama" during earnings call?No won
- Will Meta say "Oakley" during earnings call?No won
- Will Meta say "Reality Lab" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Meta say "TikTok" during earnings call?No won
- Will Meta say "UK / United Kingdom" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.