Earnings · resolved market
Will Meta say "Dividend" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00349cc415ee87335a92dbb1154652872266af05cf80866346cbfefd829fe397
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 66c | 252$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…c2e6backed No | 64c | 251$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 43c | 196.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 49c | 175$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.91 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 50c | 126.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 27c | 98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 36c | 89.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 40c | 64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 50c | 59.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked Yes | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | -15.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…63d9backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta say "Dividend" during earnings call?this page
- Will Meta say "Advertising" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Meta say "Algorithm" during earnings call?No won
- Will Meta say "Cloud" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Meta say "Hiring" during earnings call?No won
- Will Meta say "Hyperion" during earnings call?No won
- Will Meta say "Llama" during earnings call?No won
- Will Meta say "Oakley" during earnings call?No won
- Will Meta say "Reality Lab" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Meta say "TikTok" during earnings call?No won
- Will Meta say "UK / United Kingdom" during earnings call?No won
- Will Meta say "VR / Virtual Reality" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.