Movies · resolved market
Will Adolescence win Best Television Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7618cbe0f22db1e83fa4557412767dfbfcc116953d1b8f377ed26d5311fd1d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 2,721$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 5c | 2,193$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.31 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked No | 5c | 1,010$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked No | 5c | 401.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…5709backed No | 10c | 361$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed No | 10c | 259$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed No | 9c | 213$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked No | 17c | 156$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 14c | 106.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adolescence win Best Television Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will All Her Fault win Best Television Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Black Rabbit win Best Television Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will The Beast In Me win Best Television Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.