Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa76e06c16a4258f512e8479d6a4b5fa5bcf5b90e53fbf3691d922225d61c5ac7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 9c | 336.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.48 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 239.42$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 184.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 168.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 75c | 122.1$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 121$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 110.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 15c | 102.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 81.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 46c | 78.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 70c | 74.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 65.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 38c | 57.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 72c | 47.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked No | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 44.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 33c | 42.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 32c | 40.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851c…4edbbacked No | 62c | 36.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 70c | 35.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 65c | 34.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 71c | 29.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 55c | 29.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 62c | 29.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 70c | 28.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked Yes | 72c | 23.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…7816backed Yes | 70c | 22.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 68cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 77c | 19.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 15.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.