MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa76fda34515d47a68839627cfcb89074753021db878ecea1ba631e4f7de7e60f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 53c | 9,010$4,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,750 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 4,964$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,605.5 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 54c | 4,215$2,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,276.22 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Under | 44c | 4,180$1,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,340.81 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 3,787$1,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,052.54 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 47c | 3,103$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644.52 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Over | 56c | 1,619$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.64 | 254 | 53.5%136 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 44c | 1,254$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.3 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 53c | 829.45$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.61 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 57c | 670$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.9 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 57c | 633$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.81 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Under | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Under | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Under | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 48c | 243.64$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.18 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 44c | 230$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 56c | 169$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…9568backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 56c | 88.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Under | 45c | 81.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Under | 47c | 60.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ff…f464backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 43c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…8b81backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…ff19backed Under | 48c | 30.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…4fbcbacked Under | 45c | 27.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Under | 47c | 24.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…44c7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Phillies vs. DodgersDodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.