TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,663
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,553

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,663 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4103…9b9ebacked Over53c9,010$4,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,75030842.9%132 W · 176 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Under48c4,964$2,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,605.578445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Over54c4,215$2,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,276.2220850%104 W · 104 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Under44c4,180$1,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,340.8111759%69 W · 48 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under46c3,787$1,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,052.541,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under47c3,103$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.521,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Over56c1,619$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.6425453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under44c1,254$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.373149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked Under47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5309651%49 W · 47 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Over53c829.45$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.614965.3%32 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over57c670$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.98852.3%46 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over57c633$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.812,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d03…369abacked Under47c600$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3186833.8%23 W · 45 L-9.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xedae…584fbacked Under47c600$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3184645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked Under47c600$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3187041.4%29 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Over56c400$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22418649.5%92 W · 94 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7541…09d1backed Over57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006738.8%26 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16866751.9%346 W · 321 L+30.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Under48c243.64$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.185251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under44c230$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.81,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x369e…d016backed Under48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3311560.9%70 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x467e…c62dbacked Over55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009357%53 W · 40 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over56c169$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6451953.2%276 W · 243 L-24.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1918…9568backed Under48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.171553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Under45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5514549%71 W · 74 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Over56c88.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5047850.4%241 W · 237 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under48c87$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Under45c81.82$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4524040.8%98 W · 142 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed Over51c78.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbb36…9545backed Under47c60.68$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1610646.2%49 W · 57 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ff…f464backed Over57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306457.8%37 W · 27 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f01…4ca2backed Over56c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.436453%193 W · 171 L-17.4wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Over54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017244.8%77 W · 95 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under43c37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.092339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4520…8b81backed Over56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cf3…2b57backed Over56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206341.3%26 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1171…ff19backed Under48c30.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.77560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Over55c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.525854.3%140 W · 118 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd8d…4fbcbacked Under45c27.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.353100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+88.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Under47c24.43$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9521044.8%94 W · 116 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04b4…44c7backed Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.