MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3dc31747e2c6cf584bd272129a503770d89f11cbf38272f7762055e942cbe10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 59,568$38,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,089.88 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -11.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 22,659$7,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,557.62 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 10,015$3,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,305.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…6d7bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 9,031$3,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,431.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 254 | 53.5%136 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 4,951$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.89 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 4,211$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 1c | 3,975$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 2,749$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.14 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 2,500$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925 | 564 | 51.1%288 W · 276 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 1,327$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.91 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 595$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.1 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6006…cae5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 280$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…22edbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…b07abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 224.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 218.61$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 209.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 179 | 61.5%110 W · 69 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 51.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 49.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…6a01backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…8b56backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 45.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 44.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 44.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8317…18e3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…291bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Phillies vs. DodgersDodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.