South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Talleres: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7768ab46469b0e683be7e7f20f28763da189dfce9a54199f788ff41e214328f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 8,953$4,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,513.03 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…b3e4backed Over | 51c | 8,250$4,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,063.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…8d4bbacked Over | 54c | 5,224$2,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,392.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 3,113$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.92 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 2,736$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.98 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 50c | 1,398$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 51c | 750$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Under | 53c | 662.7$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 518.68$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.19 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 49c | 503.16$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.63 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 50c | 273.03$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.7 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…ec6fbacked Over | 55c | 260$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 53c | 207.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 31c | 183.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…1613backed Over | 57c | 168.04$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Under | 49c | 160.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 30c | 134.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Over | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 69c | 130.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 31c | 113.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 39c | 109.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 37c | 106.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Over | 41c | 102$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…b620backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed Under | 53c | 99.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 46c | 93.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e60…18dcbacked Over | 57c | 90.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Over | 61c | 81.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…b987backed Under | 52c | 72.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 50c | 71.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362b…9534backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Under | 52c | 45.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3174…b136backed Under | 49c | 44.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafdd…ae76backed Under | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 43c | 40.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 48 | 85.4%41 W · 7 L | +8.5wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 47c | 37.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…c504backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 28.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…f845backed Under | 50c | 21.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Talleres: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Talleres: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Talleres: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Talleres: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Talleres: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.