South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Talleres: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1693c11ceffbae5bcb24ea4e3874d6dcb2019149cf69ae89539ef208b6b5757e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 1,460$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.69 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…b620backed Over | 68c | 387.12$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.77 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 58c | 308.49$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 37c | 230.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.38 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 44c | 140$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 58c | 127.59$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 69c | 103.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…871cbacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Under | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6b…682bbacked Under | 42c | 72.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…45b4backed Under | 41c | 62.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 67c | 61.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…bf3bbacked Under | 42c | 61.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 42c | 57.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 38c | 54.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 58c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 86 | 68.6%59 W · 27 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…93b7backed Over | 60c | 48.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…578dbacked Over | 60c | 45.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +62%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb929…280bbacked Over | 60c | 41.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…7bb4backed Over | 60c | 32.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e2…89a5backed Over | 60c | 31.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d80…6133backed Under | 42c | 30.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac7…3015backed Over | 60c | 26.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 41c | 26.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 41c | 26.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…17e3backed Over | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a1…a9afbacked Over | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Over | 70c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Talleres: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Talleres: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Talleres: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Talleres: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Talleres: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.