Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7c4975407dfb7e578aa6d09457cd5ef7e82b5f3574f1a76486c30ac2dcb32bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 1c | 10,037$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 1c | 2,950$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…6bfcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 30c | 750$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.18 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 405.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 268.4$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 230.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 213$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 166.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 165$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 26c | 145.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 29c | 134.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 122.1$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 108.23$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 18c | 105.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 70c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 69c | 94.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 69c | 87.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 80.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 34c | 72.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 23c | 56.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 30c | 53.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed Yes | 30c | 52.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ad…5f89backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c49…0b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 40.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 39.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…de89backed No | 69c | 29.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 67c | 25.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…2112backed No | 68c | 20.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3d…09a6backed No | 70c | 19.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.