Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1924a7227226618811b17b5dda39c18595b2564308b25cd1d3501bb2352498f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 10c | 884.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 34c | 721.68$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.95 | 470 | 33.6%158 W · 312 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 34c | 540.55$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.9 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 2c | 502.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,369 | 20.7%283 W · 1,086 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 21c | 419.67$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 4c | 406$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 15c | 339.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.25 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 272.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 10c | 270.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 232.63$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.71 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 78c | 219.74$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 195.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed Yes | 78c | 178$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 160.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 73c | 144.06$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 143.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 31c | 143.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 143$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 43c | 138.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 133.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.96 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 19c | 130.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 781 | 51.9%405 W · 376 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 117.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 67c | 115.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 14c | 106.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 491 | 52.3%257 W · 234 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 876 | 50.2%440 W · 436 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 12c | 98.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,433 | 52.1%747 W · 686 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 83.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 57c | 81.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 80.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 1,144 | 24.7%283 W · 861 L | +26.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 79.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 77.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed No | 15c | 76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 36c | 72.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 22c | 65.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 517 | 66.9%346 W · 171 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 67c | 59.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 513 | 74.1%380 W · 133 L | +34.3wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 47c | 53.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 282 | 32.6%92 W · 190 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 28c | 50.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 76c | 45.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 26c | 38.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 76c | 33.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 31.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1,124 | 55.4%623 W · 501 L | -29.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 500 | 50.4%252 W · 248 L | +21.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 68c | 25.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 76c | 23.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 36 | 94.4%34 W · 2 L | +14.4wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1,406 | 30.9%435 W · 971 L | -93.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,145 | 63.5%727 W · 418 L | +30.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,184 | 74.2%1,621 W · 563 L | +23.5wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.