Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7d068280a259c3e27f5ff38ec992bee863b48b9c927ea9bca738d5aafee143e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 277.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 57c | 249.8$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.82 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 176.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…8527backed No | 63c | 159.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 132.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 109.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 43c | 101.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 57.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 47.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 47c | 43.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 42.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 41.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 49c | 41.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 42c | 38.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 57c | 37.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 35c | 35.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 56c | 35.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 59c | 35.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 45c | 35.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 56c | 34.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 44c | 34.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 54c | 31.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1a…4d5bbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 29.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…bbc1backed Yes | 56c | 24.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 46c | 24.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 58c | 24.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 21.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…ba7ebacked Yes | 51c | 19.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 17.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 62c | 17.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.