MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7ee22995d0f83831257ca084a94baa0640250412abcbf0b228a8110804bf80e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cb3…8ed1backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 5,197$3,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,378 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Miami Marlins | 58c | 3,511$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.71 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 3,096$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.87 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 1,951$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 1,924$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.37 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 994.86$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.4 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 943.12$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.94 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 872.45$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.22 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 855.03$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.16 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 467.49$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.87 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 466.42$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Miami Marlins | 35c | 192.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.93 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 184.03$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 168.66$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 151.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.33 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 138.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.23 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 114.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 111.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 97.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 92.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 86.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 78.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 78.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 78.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 77.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 75.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacce…f4e8backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 75.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…be97backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 75.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 74.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 70.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 61.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Miami Marlins | 79c | 53.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 49.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 43.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 41.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…9111backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 40.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 37.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 37.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…959abacked Miami Marlins | 46c | 31.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 29.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 29.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 26.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…84e3backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 25.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 25.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.