TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$182,417
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$181,608

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,417 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x63a5…8e33backed Under49c99,404$48,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,462.746445.3%29 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over51c34,106$17,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,771.751,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Over50c25,692$12,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,800.455253.1%293 W · 259 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Over53c10,713$5,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,074.7811656.9%66 W · 50 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Under49c9,810$4,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,848.2554152.1%282 W · 259 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over51c7,382$3,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,617.3792554.1%500 W · 425 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96021748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over51c3,976$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,928.3865050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over50c3,891$1,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,945.4731039%121 W · 189 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under50c3,136$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.7611256.3%63 W · 49 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47bc…9504backed Over50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5006653%35 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Under50c2,963$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.535658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Over53c2,904$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.672138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-36.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over51c2,436$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.942,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over51c2,251$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.385,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over50c2,061$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.611,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc119…0162backed Under47c2,060$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.23842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f7c…7a19backed Over52c1,962$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.6811749.6%58 W · 59 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over54c1,945$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.6112551.2%64 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over50c1,400$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7001,53848.6%747 W · 791 L-5.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Under49c1,398$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.0136649.2%180 W · 186 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09d3…3128backed Under49c1,393$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.361643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1c4…c44ebacked Over51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56de…bc32backed Over52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4806653%35 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Over51c999.99$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49021052.9%111 W · 99 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec4c…f5bdbacked Under50c995$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.51741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under50c985.52$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.7668652.9%363 W · 323 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over51c833.57$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.776,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under48c740.46$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.81,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Under50c618.45$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.236355.6%35 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf43…306abacked Over52c607$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.361656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over52c525.38$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.931,58648.5%770 W · 816 L-2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over50c504.66$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.059,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501,30150.2%653 W · 648 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Under50c392.34$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.319452.6%102 W · 92 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Over51c388.81$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.3848150.7%244 W · 237 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Over52c373.54$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.318239.6%72 W · 110 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87fa…12d0backed Over50c349.2$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.66150.8%31 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe006…25a1backed Under47c333.46$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.85425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74e1…da1ebacked Under50c325.84$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.921241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under50c291$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.544348.5%215 W · 228 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac4…a601backed Over51c285.47$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.885341.5%22 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c7b…9c3abacked Over51c285.47$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.883145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Over51c246.85$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.967243.1%31 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under47c215$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.051,44550%723 W · 722 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Over52c207.69$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6921847.7%104 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe226…95a5backed Under48c201.83$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.885451.9%28 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca4…aa92backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10010057%57 W · 43 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60fe…f286backed Over52c186.77$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6516453%87 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Under50c174.6$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.339653.5%212 W · 184 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e4f…628ebacked Over51c156.32$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under50c153.91$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9532348.9%158 W · 165 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd68…ca27backed Under49c149.38$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.692152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over51c148.85$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.32,32949.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over51c147.7$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3711245.5%51 W · 61 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over54c131.27$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3978550.2%394 W · 391 L+2.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33fc…dc88backed Over52c118.17$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7223156.7%131 W · 100 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over51c110.8$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6825249.6%125 W · 127 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Over53c109$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2375049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over53c107.7$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.661,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Under47c103.97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8772648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5564…b806backed Over52c102.72$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.31450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Over53c101.56$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1122450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over53c97.18$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.673461.8%21 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Over52c88.34$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5918649.5%92 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under48c80.29$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5249540.2%199 W · 296 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0275…596dbacked Over53c79.11$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.396852.9%36 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71a5…b594backed Under47c61.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.058247.6%39 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d6…09edbacked Under50c58.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.16549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cc…3132backed Over54c54.52$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0811753%62 W · 55 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under44c53.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3466749.3%329 W · 338 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeac9…4092backed Over51c52.22$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.825042%21 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc353…30a8backed Under50c51.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8910449%51 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf9…3a59backed Over50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2516544.8%74 W · 91 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f98…ec35backed Under50c49.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5513144.3%58 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Over57c49.34$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0255464.1%355 W · 199 L+63.1wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Under50c48.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.251,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over53c47.49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3230750.2%154 W · 153 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under50c45.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8167849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over51c44$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5616135.4%57 W · 104 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under48c41.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.182,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x623a…5144backed Under49c39.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.394235.7%15 W · 27 L-7.2wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-30.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9fe5…7936backed Under49c39.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3919248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a66…a5d7backed Over51c38.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6520950.2%105 W · 104 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdba8…5d91backed Under48c37.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1422650.4%114 W · 112 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9260…1068backed Over53c37.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.731070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Over50c36.88$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4423248.7%113 W · 119 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7f…4c60backed Under50c36.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3110356.3%58 W · 45 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae1c…3678backed Over52c36.28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4226151%133 W · 128 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Over54c35.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2696349%472 W · 491 L-39.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2b2…2e80backed Over52c34.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.569151.6%47 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdec9…5f07backed Under48c30.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.46540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x792a…7364backed Under50c29.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5510542.9%45 W · 60 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cb6…3965backed Over52c27.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.07944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e13…32b7backed Over52c24.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd24b…3cb7backed Under50c24.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.381241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Under50c24.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2266159.5%393 W · 268 L+3.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8943…6c65backed Under47c24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.385844.8%26 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc62…ba48backed Over52c23.72$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.391258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+34.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under49c23.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4919248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.