MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa800d004e7ede116f1055735d3b021ef4808752f80d56e8d65cde7b417d0850f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Under | 54c | 9,351$5,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,301.33 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 2,605$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.08 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 46c | 1,995$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.76 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 1,755$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.43 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 46c | 1,185$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.34 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 54c | 1,073$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.37 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 40c | 862.4$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.39 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 733.09$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.22 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 46c | 690.97$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.85 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 46c | 690.97$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.85 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 46c | 688.41$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.67 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 46c | 687.19$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.11 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 46c | 624.1$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.09 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 48c | 605.5$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.64 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 54c | 562$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.52 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 34c | 477.96$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.74 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 32c | 294.81$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 51c | 254.42$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.2 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 45c | 252.96$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae1…9fadbacked Over | 45c | 244.16$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.87 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Over | 46c | 215.82$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 52c | 212.5$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Over | 47c | 206$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Over | 47c | 206$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 45c | 183.73$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 27c | 166.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 54c | 119.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 45c | 116.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 18c | 104.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 95.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Over | 24c | 91.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 53c | 89.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…7354backed Under | 55c | 88.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 48c | 73.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 52c | 70.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 66.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c4…5b82backed Under | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 54c | 42.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 56c | 42.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 47c | 41.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 55c | 39.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 54c | 37.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 46c | 36.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Under | 76c | 35.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Over | 47c | 34.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 280 | 53.9%151 W · 129 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 71c | 33.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 52c | 32.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…9d38backed Over | 45c | 31.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a7…ac65backed Over | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc62…ba48backed Over | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1f…feb5backed Over | 46c | 30.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Under | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 46c | 24.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under | 52c | 22.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 74c | 14.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco GiantsNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.