TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,195
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,434

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,195 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7d92…8676backed Under54c9,351$5,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,301.333354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over46c2,605$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.0867849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over46c1,995$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.7632348.9%158 W · 165 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over46c1,755$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.431,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over46c1,185$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.346,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under54c1,073$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.3768053.2%362 W · 318 L+2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Over40c862.4$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.3914328.7%41 W · 102 L-11.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-32.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under54c733.09$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.226,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Over46c690.97$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.8534452.6%181 W · 163 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Over46c690.97$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.8515753.5%84 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Over46c688.41$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.6739351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over46c687.19$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.111,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over46c624.1$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.0992054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Over48c605.5$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.6418239.6%72 W · 110 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under54c562$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.5275049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over34c477.96$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.749,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over32c294.81$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3666749.3%329 W · 338 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under51c254.42$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.22,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over45c252.96$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.545,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae1…9fadbacked Over45c244.16$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.876943.5%30 W · 39 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Over46c215.82$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2819951.8%103 W · 96 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under52c212.5$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Over47c206$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8218151.4%93 W · 88 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked Over47c206$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8211844.1%52 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Under54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9211647.4%55 W · 61 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902532%8 W · 17 L-5.5wins-0.22per pick54cpaid-38.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under45c183.73$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.053,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over27c166.12$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.371,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under54c119.61$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.791,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over45c116.79$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.362,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Over18c104.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.291,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under68c95.48$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Over24c91.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.571735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-44.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under53c89.27$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.962,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf012…7354backed Under55c88.36$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae1c…3678backed Over48c73.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4726151%133 W · 128 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Under52c70.27$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7365549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under53c66.43$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.154,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07c4…5b82backed Under55c44.23$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under54c42.47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.479254.3%50 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Under56c42.36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.619452.6%102 W · 92 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc353…30a8backed Over47c41.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5710449%51 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under55c39.15$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5511245.5%51 W · 61 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under54c37.93$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.349255.4%51 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over46c36.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.881,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae7b…aec1backed Under76c35.39$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.652142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a34…56cfbacked Over47c34.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0928053.9%151 W · 129 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under71c33.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7647745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over52c32.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.81,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd23d…9d38backed Over45c31.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.512347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2a7…ac65backed Over46c31.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc62…ba48backed Over46c31.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.511258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+34.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c1f…feb5backed Over46c30.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x792a…7364backed Under54c27.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4310542.9%45 W · 60 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Over46c24.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.517244.2%76 W · 96 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbee…30b9backed Under52c22.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.767451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…10d9backed Under55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935547.3%168 W · 187 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under57c19.48$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3627354.6%149 W · 124 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea58…b635backed Under74c14.03$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6716734.7%58 W · 109 L-17.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-31.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.