Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8130485a24eec382d2966c4ed43cf312893f57bdfa17ecf3430b1ed671db64c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, GamerLegion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked GamerLegion | 31c | 2,335$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed GamerLegion | 11c | 2,121$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.76 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons | 70c | 1,800$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.56 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed GamerLegion | 15c | 1,253$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.25 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked GamerLegion | 16c | 837.15$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.92 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Falcons | 75c | 664.99$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.32 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons | 74c | 601.62$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.31 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed GamerLegion | 29c | 453.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.09 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed GamerLegion | 10c | 353.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Falcons | 73c | 296.72$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a5…caa6backed GamerLegion | 23c | 270$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed GamerLegion | 27c | 243.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed GamerLegion | 13c | 219.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3787…57aebacked Team Falcons | 75c | 218.95$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed GamerLegion | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Falcons | 72c | 199.99$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Team Falcons | 72c | 154.58$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed GamerLegion | 27c | 127$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked GamerLegion | 27c | 111.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x043c…e79fbacked Team Falcons | 75c | 104$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…03cbbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed GamerLegion | 15c | 91.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed GamerLegion | 34c | 87.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed GamerLegion | 23c | 64.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed GamerLegion | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Team Falcons | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Team Falcons | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Team Falcons | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…04b6backed Team Falcons | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Team Falcons | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Team Falcons | 77c | 16.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 1 WinnerGamerLegion won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.